By Cerys Davey, PR & Marketing Associate
It’s the hottest day of the year so far (and, what feels like, the hottest day in recorded human history). My face is slowly dripping off of me, the backs of my knees are sweating, and I’m having perhaps my fifteenth conversation about AI of the day. I’m at the Mergermarket M&A Forum - 2026, no less - and, if all the event’s speakers are to be believed, business is booming.
Across the conference’s various panels - on financing, inbound M&A, and shareholder activism, to name but a few - bankers and directors have flocked together to share word of a strong and busy market, underpinned by bigger deals, unconventional exits, and the promise of an imminent flood of overseas funding. One panelist enthusiastically prescribes 2026 as “Year of the Carve Out”. I thought it was Horse.
But will business really stay quite so plain sailing for H2? As we all sit down for the forum’s welcome address, we’re still only 24 hours into the wake of Keir Starmer’s resignation - a manoeuvre that will soon see the glossy black door of Number 10 swing open to Andy Burnham, along with his plans for greater public control over key utilities and re-industrialisation.
Ostensibly, this change, and the uncertainty it entails, should figure as a proverbial spanner in the works of the M&A machine. For now at least, the upheaval hasn’t caught up with UK private equity. The industry’s gotten used to rolling with the punches. From Brexit, to COVID, to war in the Middle East and Ukraine, the opportunities under examination today are the product of a decade of external shocks, which have lowered investor confidence, deal flow, and exit rates. It thus follows that this financial year has come to be recognised across the board as a kind of inflection point - a moment for action and an opportunity to, finally, drive scale. After all, if not now, when?
This sentiment - of resilience and adaptability - is echoed over and over throughout the day’s proceedings. Hamish Lazell, Group Strategy Director at Octopus Energy, describes the business’s acquisition of Bulb - a deal that saw three different Prime Ministers and four business secretaries over the course of its lifecycle. In such instances, transactions need stronger strategic rationale and more careful planning to remain defensive against political uncertainty, frequent policy changes, and shifting market conditions.
Indeed, Unilever’s Ritesh Tiwari - high off the back of the company’s $44.8 billion food divestment - uses his keynote address to argue the merits of restraint, as well as the strategic importance of making fewer “choiceful” investments, solidly aligned with a firm’s investment thesis and supported by strong due diligence. In an environment increasingly characterised by its undercurrent of dry powder and bit-champing investors, the Global Head of M&A, Treasury and Ventures urges his peers to resist the urge to ride this wave into a feeding frenzy. After all - he reminds us - quality over quantity.
In the afternoon, I sit in on ‘Macroeconomics of AI: Navigating threats and channelling opportunities’, feeling rather like an interloper as I diligently note down the benefits of point solutions and workflow digitalisation. I’ve spent the course of the panel surreptitiously submitting anonymous questions about ESG and the risks of tech reliance, which now appear to have flashed up on the moderator’s iPad. Of course, the concern is not merely environmental, as has already been articulated by Apollo’s Alex Van Hoek, whose measured approach to AI adoption appears relatively radical alongside the conference’s other speakers. From the asset manager’s perspective, the necessity of preserving junior roles and ensuring future lines of succession outweighs any short-term benefit of slowing recruitment rates or reducing team size. On an even more practical level, he tells us that AI shouldn’t be used to select “winners and losers” during deal sourcing: “that’s what we’re paid to do”.
At the end of the day, as I step out of the sleek shade of the lobby and back into the apocalyptic weather conditions outside (reluctantly leaving behind the ravaged remains of Nobu’s canape platters), I’m left with the impression of a glittering six-month stretch for British private equity, bursting with attractive returns for well-prepared buyers and ripe with deal opportunity. Rumblings of valuation disparities, technology risk, and financing difficulties still seem distant on the horizon. For 2026 at least, it’s clear that deal activity, as well as the longevity and yield of partnerships, is being upheld by three key pillars: discipline, due diligence, and discernment. And data centres. A whole lot of data centres.
